Where are the new residents going?

I read on www.AZCentral.com today the National Association of Realtors said existing single-family home sales dropped by 4.3% in August, compared to July.  That's the lowest pace since August 2002.  OK, so home sales are down, what I'd like to know is where are all the people moving to Phoenix going?  I know many are renting but  statistically I would expect out of 300 people moving to Phoenix every day of the year that even 50 would be in the market to buy a home or condo.  That a lone would be 1500 homes a month.  There are currently over 57,000 homes on the market in Metro Phoenix and just over 4300 sold in August.  From what I can see in MLS there are currently over 6500 homes either in a pending sale state or closed in September.  I do believe the way I did my search was accurate so with that in mind, the market has picked up a little bit but still I'd like to know where are these new comers are going and why aren't more buying homes.  Phoenix has always been able to get through rough times and I'd bet we'll get through this one with less pain than many parts of the country.

Comments

[Chris Campbell]

I agree. The so called experts don't seem to know what's going on any more (if they ever did).

I do think the Phoenix metro area does have a strong economy that is still getting a lot of people to move here. If they can get loans, now is a great time to buy. Unfortunately they don't trust that prices won't go down a bit more and don't want to buy when they might get the same thing for less in a few months. I think we are in a catch 22. I think the buyers will start coming out soon but the press has to give the subject a break for a few weeks.

[Rob Yee]

The latest data coming in is finally starting to sour me on the whole recovery thing. It can be overwhelming looking at the numbers. There are 57,000 homes on the market in metro Phoenix. 4300 sold in August. At that rate, if no new homes were added to the 57,000 current homes, it would take over one year to sell that current inventory. But we know new homes will constantly be added. So you can see, it is going to take a while.